Dunning Kruger Effect

While I never considered myself an expert in sports science or coaching, throughout the process of creating content for UESCA, and collaborating with top experts to create content, it became painfully evident how little I actually knew. I have a degree in Kinesiology and have worked in the fitness and coaching industries for over 20 years. As such, I sort of presumed that my background alone would set me up with some sort of base to create UESCA content. I was wrong.

From the minute I started researching peer reviewed research for UESCA, I realized that my current level of knowledge was quite inadequate and that I was in for a lot of time spent doing research. In other words, I had a pretty severe case of imposter syndrome and for what it’s worth… rightfully so.

On the flip side of imposter syndrome is what is called the ‘Dunning Kruger Effect.’ This is a cognitive bias where people with a limited knowledge in a particular area overestimate their knowledge of this area, or areas. In other words, people that demonstrate the Dunning Kruger Effect think they are more knowledgeable than they really are. As an example, if someone is a poor performer at a particular task, they might score a 2 out of 10 by those testing their skill at a task. However, the person being evaluated might score themselves at a 9 or a 10.

By Phlsph7 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=124731078

As a former personal trainer, I saw this quite a bit as it related to one’s fitness level or sport ability. In one instance, I had a phone consultation with a potential cycling client who told me that they were ‘really fast’ and had done a bunch of bike races and therefore, was quite experienced. OK.

Upon meeting this person in Central Park, I quickly learned that ‘really fast’ is highly subjective and that a ‘bunch of bike races’ equated to taking a 10-day bike tour in France with the main focus being eating amazing food and drinking priceless wines. Yes, she was in France… but not racing in the Tour de France!

Experts Aren’t Know-It-All’s

Over the past two years, I’ve had the immense pleasure of selecting the speakers for our UESCA conferences. The goal of selecting these presenters was to ideally get the most knowledgeable people for the areas that we wanted presented on. In other words, get the ‘real’ experts.

Without exception, all of the presenters were humble, kind and generous. Most interesting was their specificity of what they felt comfortable presenting on. In one such instance, I had reached out to a sports scientist with more letters after their name than I can count, and they wanted to know exactly what I wanted them to present on because they wanted to make sure that it aligned with their expertise. When I told them what I was looking for, they declined my offer. Now, it’s important to note that this person is likely more knowledgeable about this particular area of study that I requested than 99.9% of the population – but, since they didn’t feel that it was their absolute area of expertise, they declined to speak at the conference.

While this person is an extreme example, almost all of the potential presenters that I reached out to were very clear about what they felt comfortable presenting on, and what they did not.

Conversely, those that are under the influence of the Dunning Kruger Effect would likely say that they are experts in everything, but without any, or very limited knowledge in a particular subject matter.

Arm-Chair Experts

This term “arm chair experts” is synonymous with the ‘Dunning Kruger Effect’ as people with limited knowledge in a particular area freely dispense with their advice and ‘expertise.’ From a sports point of view, the term ‘sofa quarterback’ is often used to refer to someone who has little athletic ability or knowledge of the game but offers endless critique of the players and/or coaches. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been known to shout at the TV during the Tour de France for riders to attack, knowing full well they could beat me up the hill even if they were on a tricycle with three flat tires! But at least I’m in full ownership of my delusional mind!

While arm-chair experts have existed since the beginning of time, since the invention of the internet and moreover social media, these ‘experts’ are seemingly everywhere and imposing their ‘wisdom’ on all of us.

What I have personally found is that these ‘experts’ are often quite comfortable in environments where they feel they are the smartest one, however, you likely won’t see them spouting off their knowledge in the chat forum of ‘International Association of Applied Physiology.’ Just sayin’!

A Little Bit of Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing

Another way of looking at the Dunning Kruger Effect is the phrase by Alexander Pope, “A little knowledge of a dangerous thing.” In other words, a very small amount of knowledge can mislead a person into thinking that they know more than they actually do, and in some cases, have them thinking they are an expert.

With respect to coaching, it can be a very dangerous thing. Poor judgement calls on the part of a coach due to a lack of knowledge can result in an athlete being injured or worse.

When you go from no knowledge in a particular area to some knowledge, it can seem like you’re an expert due to the amount of knowledge gained. However, this acquisition of new knowledge should never be misconstrued as being an expert. I saw this quite a bit in the fitness industry where trainers would learn about things such as patellofemoral syndrome, and next thing you know they would be diagnosing their clients’ musculoskeletal issues – way outside the professional and legal scope of a trainer, or coach.

How to Find a Real Expert

As noted above, the number of so called ‘experts’ online and on social media is near limitless. This begs the question, “So how do I find a real expert?”

For starters, look at their credentials. Do they have an educational background in the area of question? Do they stay current on the latest research and trends? Is their work associated with this area(s) of knowledge? These are a few areas of low hanging fruit to initially use to vet someone.

However, once you think you’ve found someone that is an expert, my preferred method to assess their expertise and character is to ask them questions. And I’m not talking surface level questions… I’m talking intelligent, deep questions that require real knowledge of a subject matter. Because here’s the thing, you don’t have to even be able to understand their response – it has less to do with the exact reply, as it does with their approach. If they give an absolute, black and white reply that is a pretty surface level answer, tread carefully. However, if the person asks you questions back, provides caveats and exceptions and gives multiple scenarios, they are likely an expert… or at least more so than the aforementioned person. Because a truly educated expert in an area knows that things are rarely black and white and will want to give the most comprehensive answer possible, which will likely have many variables to the answer.

Lastly, this needs to be reiterated even though it’s common sense (at least to me) – fast, fit, number of races on a resumé, number of races won, etc… DO NOT equate to being an expert! Might a 4-minute miler be an expert on gait mechanics? Maybe, but it’s not because they can run a sub-4 minute mile.

Look, The Research Says…

Another thing that I often see in chat forums and articles is ‘experts’ citing research to back up their position(s). While I’m obviously a huge advocate of quality research, the way many people go about ‘research’ is the reverse method that one typically does and should. Meaning, instead of seeking out quality research to learn more, people seek out research for the purpose of justifying an already held belief.

You Don’t Have To Be An Expert

Use me as an example. Due to my research for UESCA and collaborating and reviewing content from top experts, I have what I imagine to be a more robust and deeper knowledge about coaching and sports science areas than most people. As such, I could likely enhance the knowledge of others from what I’ve learned in my own studies and exposure to experts. This is a good thing as it allows others to glean information from experts that I have had contact with. However, I don’t ever delude myself into thinking I’m an expert – I merely have a wide knowledge base of a lot of areas but by no means an expert in any one area.

Summary

It should be the goal of every coach and athlete to seek out the best and most accurate information possible. Whether this comes from research articles, seminars, webinars, etc… there is a vast range of resources available. Gain knowledge, keep learning, and keep an accurate assessment of yourself. And be aware of what a true expert is.

The point of this post is to appreciate that not everyone that comes across as an expert is one. And moreover, find ways to determine if a person truly is an expert or not. In closing, I’ll also state that in my time collaborating with experts, not one of them ever called themselves an expert or purported to be ‘all knowing.’